There are claims that George Floyd’s death was the result of a racial bias by the Police against black suspects. Black Activists complain that black suspects are 3 times more likely to be killed by the US Police as white suspects. This is regularly quoted but based on the false argument that between 2013 and 2019 42 black Americans were killed for every million of their population, whereas only 14 white Americans were killed for every million of their population.
There are three things wrong with this argument.
1. It is only suspected criminals who are at risk of being killed by the police, and then only if they resist arrest. The remainder of the law abiding population are not relevant here.
2. Armed suspects resisting arrest are naturally all shot by the Police regardless of race or colour so they are not relevant to any consideration of bias.
3. We should therefore only be concerned with the number of unarmed suspects resisting arrest who are killed in each category.
In 2019 the Police killed twice as many unarmed white suspects as black suspects – 19 white compared with 9 black and 6 others. In order to determine the relative probabilities we ideally need to examine the number of arrests of unarmed suspects, distinguishing those who were resisting arrest and needed to be restrained and subdued, analysed between white, black and other.
Such analysis is also best done on a state by state basis as the policies and training of the Police Departments does vary considerably between states. As things stand the information required to make a reasoned and reliable analysis of any bias is not available, and so the different groups draw their own conclusions.
For the sake if argument let us assume that there does appear to be a bias against unarmed black suspects as claimed by some, then we need to examine whether that could be the result of racial bias or something entirely different.
Around 150 police officers are killed each year in the line of duty. Of those 41% are killed by black suspects. In other words black suspects are significantly more likely to be a threat to the life of a Police Officer than white suspects.
52.5% of all homicides in the USA are committed by black people ( 13.4% of the population ) and 45.3% by white people ( 76.5% of the population ). In other words black people are 6 times more likely to kill someone than white people relative to their population.
How is this relevant?
All Police Officers are trained in the Police Academies in each of the 50 US states. Things are complicated by the fact that each state is different. However, taking a general view, most Academies teach that the first objective in policing is the survival of the Police Officers. When you go to work in the morning your primary objective is to come home safely in the evening.
The UK’s own Health and Safety Regulations would make this a requirement for all employers.
As a consequence of having the primary objective, then avoiding the death of suspects must necessarily be a secondary objective.
In order to achieve the primary objective the Academies teach threat detection and response. The Police are trained to regard every encounter with a suspect as a potential threat to life. They spend a lot of time learning how to identify potential threats and how to respond effectively in order to protect themselves and their fellow Officers with only a fraction of a second to make their decisions. The Academies then test the Officer’s threat perception ability and response to ensure that it is effective before they allow them to graduate.
Subsequent threat perception tests with experienced Officers show that both black and white Officers regard black suspects as a greater potential threat to life than a white suspect, and they respond accordingly, sometimes with lethal force. That is a consequence of both the statistical data and their personal experience and that of their fellow Officers that black suspects are more likely to be a threat to Officers’ lives. It is nothing to do with racial discrimination. It is simply a matter of recognising the greater threat to life based on real evidence.
None of he above excuses Police brutality and there should clearly be safeguards including compulsory body cameras and reporting, and an independent review body with teeth. The problem in the USA is the strength of the unions who seem to be against such controls.
What about other forms of discrimination being alleged? Why do black people believe that there is prejudice against them? The feeling of discrimination is mainly a matter of perception. Everyone tends to think that they are being discriminated against if things don’t go their way. Statistics can show correlation, and are often used to try and identify discrimination, but correlation is not causation. There are often other causes unrelated to racial discrimination.