Like most things, staying in the EU will be good for some and not so good for others.
It will be good for business executives. For one thing they will have a larger pool of labour and an easily managed market. It will be good for senior politicians, particularly those with an eye to the lucrative posts available in the EU for retired MP’s, with very generous pensions financed by EU taxpayers.
It would be good for the very wealthy as it provides greater flexibility for their movement and influence within Europe
It would be good for many civil servants whose job relies on dealing with the complex EU Commission directives and rules.
It would be good for France and Germany. The IMF is run by an ex French Finance Minister and so it is not surprising that the IMF have come out in favour of Britain remaining in the EU.
It would be good for the USA as with their special relationship with the UK it gives them direct influence in Europe.
All these parties have a significant vested interest in trying to maintain the status quo.
Messrs Cameron and Osborne have chosen to nail their colours to the mast and so a vote to leave the EU would probably signal an end to their political careers. They would do or say anything to avoid that possibility.
So there are lots of influential individuals with a vested interest in the UK remaining in the EU. On the other hand, it is difficult to see anyone influential who would have a vested interest in the UK leaving the EU. That is more likely to be of benefit to everyone, rather than just a privileged few.
It seems logical that leaving the EU would be good for ordinary working people. There would be fewer EU migrants competing with UK citizens for jobs, housing, schooling and healthcare.
However, that is not the real issue. Most of the arguments about whether to stay in or leave the EU are missing the point. It is not the decision itself which is critical, but what is done afterwards. It is no use leaving the EU unless the government then becomes vigorous and proactive in securing the best deals for the UK around the world and safeguarding the interest of UK citizens above all else.
Equally, the consequences of staying in will depend entirely on what the EU Commission and European Parliament decide in the future, and what their priorities are.
Which is the greater risk – leaving the EU or staying in?
If we stay in the EU our fate will be determined by the EU. We may have some influence, but we do not have any control. On the other hand if we leave the EU we will have full control over our future.
The real issue is whether we think that the UK’s voters are best placed to elect a government which will achieve the greatest benefits for British citizens, or whether the EU voters as a whole are best placed to make the rules for us to follow.
Most of the EU is more socialist than the UK, and so if you are a traditional Labour or SNP voter, then you would probably prefer the decisions to be made by the EU as a whole. If, on the other hand, you are a traditional Conservative voter then you would probably prefer UK voters alone to decide Britain’s fate.
If you are an ordinary working person and have no specific allegiance, but just want the best for yourself and your children, then you will need to judge for yourself which is likely to be optimum way forward.
If the UK leaves the EU, the significant benefits possible will not be achieved for several years. Choosing to leave the EU does therefore require a long term view. If, for example, you have been diagnosed with cancer and only have a year or two to live, then you would probably vote to stay in the EU – unless, maybe, you have children living in the UK and you are more concerned with their welfare than your own.